Lets not blame any one for the current state of the energy crisis. Research aroung alternative technologies have been set in motion long back and one cannot say that these have been without adequate success either. However all such efforts have been thwarted by the Oil prices that were till recently low as compared to alternatives. In this contex, Shasi Tharoor in his piece in the Times of India has said that, "while solar power is the most obvious source of energy for India, the existing technology is prohibitively expensive. Solar panels, made from silicon cost 10 times the price of the cheapest fossil fuels."
However now the context has changed in steep oil inflation. Swaminahan Aiyar in his column says, "economies of scale can substantially reduce the cost of nuclear power. Nuclear power plants have high upfront capital costs, but low running costs. If they are built without cost or time overruns, nuclear power could be competitive with natural gas even at today’s prices'. France which gets most of its electricity from nuclear power has proved that once plants are standardized and that there are no cost and time overruns, nucleat power is competitive with conventional methods of power generation. Fourth generation power plants are on the anvil and will further bring down the cost of electircuty through nuclear power. In this contex the popular green champion Al Gore says,"with economies of scale, energy generated from the sun, wind and water would become more affordable and, eventually, all electricity generated could be from non-fossil fuel sources."
While coal is easily the cheapest option but its close linkage with global warming renders it unsuitable in the long run. Taxes on carbon emissions, when they come will offset its otherwise pricing advantage. But taxes on carbon may not be the best way to save the globe. In this context, Shashi Throor says in his column, " a more effective response than the attempt to reduce emissions would be to significantly increase research on, and the development of, other energy sources than carbon — such as solar energy." In a way, the oil inflation has been a blessing in disguise. The sense of urgency which was lacking in the efforts to tackle global warming, will now emerge and take shape in economics of the alternatives and in the bargain cool the planet as well.
The2006 Expert Committee on Energy estimated India’s power needs at 960,000 MW by 2031-32, up from 144,000 MW today. This is reason enough to explore all possible options. Breakthroughs in solar or other forms of energy could make them cheaper and more easily accessible than nuclear power. History shows that technology can change in radical, unpredictable ways. It is worthwile noting what economies of scales have done to the mobile phone industry. Swaminathan Aiyar further goes on the say that," I will be very happy if solar energy becomes the source of the future. It is available everywhere. It is renewable. It has none of the toxic, military or waste-disposal hazards of nuclear power. Recent advances in solar thermal technology show a lot of promise. Yet, nobody knows if the technology can be scaled up, work in cloudy countries, or overcome maintenance issues." Throor too supports the solar energy potential when he says,"The scale of India’s energy needs, and the abundance of sunshine, should also mean that we should be able to benefit from economies of scale unavailable to smaller countries."Therefore while solar energy is all poised to change the way of things in the near future, it still has some hurdles to overcome.
In such circumstances, we need to keep all options open, aim for a mix of energy sources, and try to be at the leading edge of all technologies for where magic will happen is hard to predict.
