Dharmendra Satapathy

Friday, February 6, 2009

Why are we better off at 10000 than 17000

Very simple. I think the equity markets are stable because the largest proportion of investors entered the market from the beginning of the bull run in 2004 and accelerated their investments with the bull run all the way up to Jan 2008. Hence all are sitting on major losses at 10000 ( perhaps the luckiest entered at this level and lot after this till all the way to 21000). Therefore most are hoping for some revival before redeeming. Hence to say that the Indian investor is matured and patient would be a little too pre-mature. Also the current buying is due to low valuations and the hope of some returns. My sense is that at about 15000 to 17000 the most investors will make their way out of the market. People are too bruised to even react. Such destruction of wealth is so unreal that it has set the market back by at least a couple of years. My view is had the market been at 17000, it would have seen steady redemption's by domestic investors. Unfortunately it is the domestic investor who has been trapped in the market. The markets which had turned retail for real has been nipped in the bud by the meltdown tsunami. The way forward will be slow and advisory dependant. The pull forces have gone to rest and hence the push initiatives are the only options left for the short to medium term. So should we thank our stars that the markets are at 10000 and not 17000